Quebec, and the 6 smaller provinces

I decided to update my prediction for 2018 in Quebec

My prediction for the other provinces are as follows.


Saskatchewan
Sask Party Majority


Manitoba
PC Party Majority


Nova Scotia
Liberal Party Majority


PEI
Liberal Party Majority, NDP official opposition


Newfoundland
Liberal Party Majority (map on Blunt Objects, a week or so ago)


New Brunswick
Liberal Party Majority, NDP with 2-4 seats

What should I do if I'm wrong.

As most of you know, I pitched my transit idea to the premier.

After the cameras stopped rolling I told her flat out that she could run an election on this, and win.

Looking at Some of her announcements it seems that's exactly what she is trying to do.

Not only that, but the budget she presented - holding corporate taxes while increasing income taxes to cut the deficit - is exactly the kind of thing I've proposed numerous times.

In effect, she is running her election my way.

So. What if she loses? Frankly, if she manages to do so without botching it somehow, it will mean I was flat out wrong.

I'd like to open the floor as to what I should do if this happens. Should I stop blogging? Should I re-examine my political stances? Should I admit I was wrong and 5 minutes later be done with it?

Google Maps

In my spare time I make Google Maps. Fun little things. I decided to share with all of you, every map I've made. At least the ones I've not deleted. I commit, however, that I've not deleted any maps within the past 12 hours.

Since the internet is being utterly non-co-operative at the moment, I may edit this post to add more and more maps. I will, at the end, have them all up.

The titles of many of these maps explain what they are. More info though for some others.

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.000462dacd5169e8e534d
where arabs live in israel/palestine

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.000489cc67a06628d0e49
canada's watersheds

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.000496444b6c4b76e563c
NB language dividing line

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.00049b1cc048f1ea757cd
Weird combo of lines based on the various 1905 proposals for the various prairie provinces (looks like a mess; uses as a base for creating other maps)

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.00049c5ef5d1a584444f3
Comparison of city size, US vs Canada. Shows just how few people we have, and how big some american cities are compared to ours.

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.00045b73252f0a255e77f
pre-merger toronto municipalities

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004c3db6a963a4cc8613
The 1948 partition plan for Palestine

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.000483a47ad307b0a9a0d
A Canada demographic map - I use this to explain to people from other countries "why" Canada, in my view, is "broken"

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004bdee45f97a33f389a
Western Canada City Populations

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004c98fcbf3829df5578
Where I consider the boundary of "Northern Ontario" begins.

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004cd27fc4b516259894
Where I live. I'll be moving by August so if you want to stalk me do it quick.

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004d06b8b820edc9df81
Wanted to see if it's true that a overwhelming majority of Canadians live within 100 miles of the US border (it is)

https://mapsengine.google.com/map/edit?mid=zBhS_yAdu-CA.kWpF9N8nwWZU
Accidentally created this map after Google Maps changed things. Unable to delete it.

https://mapsengine.google.com/map/edit?mid=zBhS_yAdu-CA.kvX4ne3sjhxQ
Same as above

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.00047c3bfe492787c9e67
Quebec's Senate Divisions / Ridings. I am most proud of this map of all the maps I've made using Google Maps.

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004e0e1298f809110418
The original "Manitoba" as proposed originally.

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004825ec5e12f1572e4e
Municipalities of the GTA. Moot, as if you google search for "Vaughan, ON" it should show the outline.

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004c5148507fc084f168
Fantasy map, my new homeland; islands in the mid-atlantic that I build my own personalized Empire on.

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.000482c44136cb75a004f
Similar to my other prairie map, this map can be used as a baseline for a lot of other maps.

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004dd99b4c6b7e409ce2
Based on the link provided in the description.

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004d349473069069f564
Israeli Separation Barrier

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004d113f17ad97735fd8
My attempt to outline Kurdistan

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004ed280a99ab87d0688
Showing community populations in Nunavut
(at least I think so, again, internet problems)

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004ea9f6bea8468a2f43
My view of what the GTA is.

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004e86d8e889c5139a41
My proposed reform of Metro Halifax

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004e838f92fe5c2e9690
Semi-Fantasy alternate history country slash proposal for a centre-left nation in north america.

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004ef7fe6bbc0bb06776
Part of NJ I feel should be part of NYC as it's own borough.
(?) (I think - again, internet troubles)

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f1f6eb650876e81a2
Parts of Australia where I wouldn't melt from it being "too hot"

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f2caf1835e48ea125
Cities in Europe and population by million

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f33ae379f64abc099
I dont even. I think I was trying to mark off "centres" - like if you had a nationwide convention, these could be the places people meet; or something.

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f3a8f0f0048bc2572
Before Russia took all of Crimea, I suggested partitioning it. People said I was mad. They took the whole thing. I keep this map as kind of a neener-neener-I-was-right sorta thing.

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f58d879f00f925532
My response to an article

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004df6680b15c8d5934c
World's largest cities

My view of what should be the 51st US state
https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004efacab19f62962d1a

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004eb67d98a9ac8711f7
How I'd split the US and Canada to divide the red states from the blue states

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f8418e6fe284d2652
Dividing the world into 7 nations for a fictional story

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f7dbb655e08f2b851
My proposal for election reform in Toronto

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f7b5954b746403095
Another attempt to map out a two state solution (I gave up on this)

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f74c4e764d65dabff
Splitting Saskatchewan in half.

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f71e92f7ed4d7dae0
Was trying for a radical alternate history where the great lakes are bigger.

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f71f5bc4193fdd747
blackout areas, april 15th 2014 toronto

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f673abba9693c2ded
I forsee this as the new Russia-Ukraine border after Russia is done it's business in the area.

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f68c36a9691851967
Open Streets Toronto, my interpretation

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004e0e0e595e7bc48a8e
What Ontario actually claimed in 1872

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f63ff938ce9b8e0d8
My Toronto Transit Proposals

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f624929296f5ac1a6
My plan for 25 new highways in Ontario

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f625bbbe41f72a964
Nationwide version of the above

and a crapload of maps I have that are titled "untitled"

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f86c4ddef650dd34e
How Kingston votes, 4 party balance


WARNING: descriptions may be off by one link below. too many! head spinning.


https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f855080df10f31c1d
Dont Remember / Has yet to load for me

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f82f250b6e86215d0
splitting ontario in "half"


https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f8171d8f4134d5b72
commute time to parliaments and legislatures in canada


https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f7f20bca0ae0930ba
alternate history watershed for the great lakes


https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f7f1f17f86d9834f6
same as below


https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f7c8624d5e65f6c26
Dont remember. lots of towns and cities in ontario.


https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f7b486c4cd2831e7a
Greater Montreal


https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f74d993968462e4b8
Where I plan to look for jobs, plus my local bus line.


https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f74cecbc8eb5c2fe5
1st world "empire"


https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f73eb607d4f778ebb
Northern Highways (proposal)


https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f71fa318e16f8cc7c
Seems broken


https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f7050f57d25d5586e
Montreal outlined for some reason



https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f7022e2b43b2f07b4
Trying to split Belgium up. unfinished.


https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f70204d693c748226
Vancouver Transit idea (I've abandoned this idea; it's a bad idea)


https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f700deb8f13f3ad82
Highway connection for Halifax


https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f6dae1bf90451a921
Bridges Quebec needs


https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f6ae4bd33f7a38153
Greater Montreal


https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f697919da32ce2404
Some attempts to figure out where the missing plane went.



https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004f688482bd8d07240a
Dont Remember, appears broken.

Independence, Part 4

So what of the Rest of Canada? Sure we could keep the same flag, but as a flag geek, I'd like to design something new. The Maple Leaf has always been seen as a symbol of Canada. Seen as, because, officially at least, it was not such a thing until the 1960s. The Maple Leaf is, officially, a symbol of Ontario. Three maple leaves, in fact. Most people probably know the Pearson Pennant which has 3 leaves; it is this 3-leaf design that is found on Ontario's coat of arms. While I like the idea of multiple leaves, it only gets further from the idea of a flag that is simple and easy to draw. As such, this is my preference.

This, therefore is my recommendation. It's a bit like the flag of Austria, but also distinct. It's simple, and removes, symbolically, the now redacted "west coast". It replaces it with our two historically most important "coasts"; the northern Hudsons Bay "coast", and the southern St.Lawrence "coast". The Three Leafs have a triple meaning. First as a symbol of Ontario and thus Canada; second as symbols of Ontario-Quebec-Atlantic, and finally as symbols of Anglos-Francos-Allos.

So, what would our "New" Canada looks like politically.

First, the Parliament.

Unlike the West, the provinces in "New" Canada have never feared more representatives. I also feel Quebec will play a major role. Right now, Ontario mirrors and adopts the Federal riding boundaries; making only minor adjustments. I feel that with Quebec's new "place" in the "new" Canada, we can do something similar.

Therefore I propose a new Quebec Formula. Quebec would use it's 125 provincial ridings as Federal ridings. The number-of-people per riding in Quebec would then be applied to the other provinces. This gives us the following result mathematically.

NL - 8
PE - 2
NS - 14
NB - 12
QC - 125
ON - 208
Total - 369

We'd then need to apply the existing Senatorial clause; that raises PEI from 2 to 4 members. This means Quebec ends up ever so slightly under-represented, 125/369 VS 125/371. This very small perturbance should not be enough to upset them. Thus our final result is as follows:

ON - 208
QC - 125
NS - 14
NB - 12
NL - 8
PE - 4
Total - 371

Now we quickly run in to a problem. Ontario, with 50%+1 of the people, naturally have 50%+1 of the MPs. How to counter balance this? The answer lies where many do not think to look, the Senate. The Senate of "New" Canada will be very different yet also similar to that of Western Canada. First, it will be roughly balanced between Anglophone and Francophone populations. Second, we'll apply the reverse* of the Senate clause to increase the number of seats.

*By this I mean the following. The Senate clause says no province can have less MPs than it has Senators. The new reverse clause would say no province can have more Senators than MPs.

Thus, the Senate would look like this:

ON - 24 (Remains as-is)
QC - 48 (Because Quebec is unique, and, Francophone)
NB - 12 ("half" of them "french"; 12 because NB has 12 MPs)
NS - 12 (Balanced with NB)
NL - 8 (Reverse Senate Clause)
PE - 4 (Remains as-is)

Exactly who is French and English is not important; the Senate is not "officially" balanced between the French and English, it is only adjusted to get a better balance. Quebec would retain the advantage, due to it's distinct character; something the Constitution would recognize. The ratios would be as follows.
PE = 1
NL = 2
NS/NB = 3
ON = 6
QC = 12

So our "Starting Senate" is as follows.

QC - 48
ON - 24
NS - 12
NB - 12
NL - 8
PE - 4

However, if we need to increase the size of the Senate, we could end up with

QC - 30
ON - 60
NS - 15
NB - 15
NL - 10
PE - 5

Why would we need to increase the size of the Senate? Balance. Remember that idea, stolen from Australia, to combine the Senate and House in the event of a disagreement between the two on a bill?

Look what happens when you do that here, with our original 12-seat-NB Senate

PE - 8
NL - 16
NB - 24
NS - 26
QC - 173
ON - 232
Total - 479

That's right, Ontario ends up with under 50% of the total seats. This is how that would be made to work; the Senate would always ensure a combined parliament will never have any one province with 50%+1 of the seats.

This Senate would, however, not be elected. The Senate would be appointed. Appointed, however, by the Premiers. This will ensure that the Senate represents provincial wills and is thus able to over-ride anything that Ontario may try to ram though against the other provinces.


So, what of the other issues?

The Capitol is settled. Why move it from Ottawa?

What does need to be discussed is Quebec. Quebec would be offered, in short, the things it wants. Distinct Society, power over it's Culture and Language, and so on. Remember that while Charlottetown failed 63%-37% in Western Canada, it only failed 53%-47% in the provinces of our "New" Canada. In fact, without Quebec, Charlottetown would have lost in Ontario and the Atlantic, combined, by 34,321 votes. Compare that to the 54,288 margin in the Quebec referendum, which had fewer voters. Ideas like Meech and Charlottetown could well pass a referendum in this "New" Canada, especially if supported by all sides, and by a popular new government.

So what would politics look like in the new nation? For one, the Bloc, and likely PQ, would find the wind has been knocked out of it's sails. The Tories would not just vanish, nor the NDP, despite being "western" parties historically. In fact, I could see the first election producing a 3-way tie, or near so. With such an obvious NDP possible win, I think even PEI would jump on board and elect an NDP member. In fact, I could see the following occurring:

NL
5 - Lib
2 - NDP
1 - CPC

PE
2 - Lib
1 - NDP
1 - CPC

NS
8 - Lib
3 - CPC
3 - NDP

NB
8 - Lib
3 - CPC
1 - NDP

Subtotal; Atlantic
23 - Lib
8 - CPC
7 - NDP

Quebec
77 - NDP
38 - Lib
10 - CPC

Ontario
105 - CPC
62 - Lib
39 - NDP
2 - Grn

Total
123 - Lib
123 - NDP
123 - CPC
2 - Grn

Which would certainly be interesting.


So how would these countries act? How would they be socially, economically, and on the world stage? Find out in the final post in this series.

Independence, Part 3

As you know, I am a huge map fan, I love maps and make maps. You may not know I'm also a flag fan. I like flags that are simple. My personal motto around flags is that a 3 year old should able to accurately draw the flag of his nation, province, and city. The US flag, thus, is a "bad flag" because many will not get more or less than 13 stripes, many will not make the blue field rest on the proper stripe, and no 3 year old I know can draw 50 white stars on a blue background in the proper pattern. Canada's flag is not much better; while the bars can be drawn properly, the maple leaf always ends up looking like a mess; it's just too complex a shape to get right. Flags like Russia, Germany, France, Sweden, Japan, etc, are all good flags in my mind. To that end I've decide what I feel is a simple but realistic and politically palatable flag for Western Canada

This borrows from designs used in the past by Western Separatists. The 'triangle' is the Rocky Mountains, and the flat bit is the Prairies. I've replaced the various starfields proposed with a maple leaf; a white one as that looks best on the Blue background. This is not a perfect flag, but should Western Canada become a nation in the way I propose - IE a mutual agreement and not a hard fought referendum with the rest of Canada fighting it - I do feel that this very flag would be in the top few finalists that the MPs of the new nation, or, the voters in a referendum, would be deciding upon. Since I'm unable to consult with all 11 million people in Western Canada about this for this blogpost, I'll just presume this will be the flag!

So then what would these nations look like politically?

Lets start with Western Canada.

First, the Parliament.

The West has always shown a preference for smaller governments. With 14 MPs currently from Saskatchewan and from Manitoba, as well as 3 total from the Territories, and, 34 new ridings in Alberta and 42 in BC, our total, 107, does seem large enough for a nation of 11 million concerned about too much government. The problem then becomes one of fudging. Manitoba has more people than Saskatchewan, and economically, is the "odd man out" in this new country. They would likely want additional MPs. Alberta and BC, however, would not want to end up under-represented to the other provinces. My compromise, one that I think is politically realistic, is for a  "Saskatchewan Formula" to determine the number of seats.

Saskatchewan has 14 MPs and I propose that remain the case. The number of voters per riding in Saskatchewan would then be applied to the other provinces. This means Manitoba now gets 16 MPs. The total list, by math alone, is as follows.

MB - 16
SK - 14
AB - 51
BC - 58
YK - 0
NT - 1
NU - 0

Of course you can not have 0 in a Territory, thus it is only logical to add one. There are no other adjustments that are then needed to the house. Thus our final totals are as follows.

BC-58
AB-51
MB-16
SK-14
TR-3
Total - 142

So what of the Senate? The West has always shown a preference for a Senate that can equalize the provinces. Currently, the 4 western provinces and 3 territories have a total of 27 members. 27 seems like a very small number for a nation of 11 million. Compare to Australia, with double the population, has 76 Senators. Even the smallest nations tend to have houses of at least a dozen or two. Thus I think doubling the number, from 6 to 12 per province, and 1 to 2 per Territory - the same number per state and territory Australia uses, is more politically sound. Our Senate totals are thus

BC-12
AB-12
MB-12
SK-12
NT-2
YK-2
NU-2

They, like in Australia, would be Elected. Half at each general election.

So what then if there is a fight or disagreement between the House and the Senate? Like Australia the answer is to combine the two houses so they vote as one. In such a scenario the breakdown of total members is as follows.

BC-70
AB-63
MB-28
SK-26
NT-3
YK-3
NU-3

So that is solved, and solved in a way I think an overwhelming majority of Western Canadians would want things. The problem then is where to locate the new Parliament buildings?

Unless we plan to put it in Dog River, Saskatchewan, we'll need to look to a larger centre. One that is "known". That means no Williams Lake, no Canmore, no Gimli; but some place with a few more people.

So what places are candidates? There are a few places I see being shot down quickly. Prince George, Kamloops, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Moose Jaw, Brandon; none of these places seem to have a real draw to them. Victoria might be an option, but it'd be weird to replace a fly-in-fly-out capital in Ottawa with one at the other edge. Winnipeg is also out for similar reasons. Lloydminster will certainly have a good go at it, being "between provinces" is a good selling point for a Federal centre; but I think the draw towards a larger urban area will simply be too much. Saskatoon might make a claim, but I can't see much of a good reason to pick it over the alternatives. Edmonton is the strongest so far, but as a provincial capital, I think it might be passed over, as well I can't see it making a stronger case over the others. So who are the big alternatives?

Vancouver, Regina, Calgary, and Red Deer.

Red Deer, located in the "middle" of Alberta, could really sell being the "middle" of the new nation. It could argue that, being "driving distance" from both Edmonton and Calgary, it would be the cheapest option as you have fewer people flying in and out, and having to rent apartments in the city. MPs could live at home if they live in Edmonton or Calgary and drive in every morning. The problem with this argument is that it is quite a long drive, and, Red Deer is the smallest city on the list, and would thus need the most infrastructure (IE new office buildings) to support a new Capitol.

Vancouver, the largest city in the new nation, could make that it's selling point. As the largest "port" it could clearly mark the new nation as a pacific nation and make a statement. The problem is the Rockies. You end up with a Capitol that is geographically distinct from the rest of the country, something that might not go over well with Prairie voters. While Vancouver can make a very strong case and get some dedicated supporters, I don't see it managing to beat an "Anywhere But Vancouver" campaign.

Regina, originally designed and built as THE Capitol of the West, it could serve this role well. This is my personal favourite, and if I was writing this as a fiction piece and not what I think would happen, Regina would be the final answer. The Legislature in Regina was, in fact, designed to hold 100 or more members, and could easily be adapted to hold all 142 MPs. While somewhat small, Regina does have the needed infrastructure to hold a national Capitol. The problem then is what of the existing Saskatchewan government; and the answer is very simple; they move to Saskatoon, which was the "original capitol" of Saskatchewan, and is it's largest city. This would mean each of the 7 largest cities in the West are doing something. Winnipeg, Edmonton, Victoria, Saskatoon are being provincial capitals. Regina, the national Capitol. Vancouver is being the biggest. Calgary is being the economic hub. It's win-win all around. The problem is while this plan would "work best" I don't see it selling politically, at least not as well as...

Calgary, the obvious and clear choice. I can't see any city actually beating Calgary, regardless of weather it's MPs, MLAs, Premiers, or Voters deciding on the location. Calgary has, for decades now, been the unofficial Capitol of the west, and I can't see any other city being able to beat it out for the official title. It's certainly big enough to do the job and do it well, and it certainly has all the infrastructure in place. The only additional thing needed would be an actual Parliament building itself; something that can be relatively easily built in a good and central location. Calgary does not lack for engineers! Thus I feel Calgary would be the new Capitol.

So, what of politics in the new nation? Presuming this happens now, I think Harper would become the Prime Minister. Both the Liberals and NDP would need to find new leaders, likely people like Goodale, or Murray and Julian, or Cullen. I could, possibly, see a merger between the two. The NDP and Liberals in Alberta almost merged a few years ago, and the Liberals are so weak in Saskatchewan and Manitoba at the provincial level, it would not really change much. BC could be opposed, but I don't see why the provincial Liberals can't just change their name to something else if that were to happen; people support the party because it's "Not the NDP", thus they could win a majority government being "The Not-NDP Party of BC" Those looking to cast a protest vote could vote Green, many here already do. So what would an election look like under this political system? It's extremely likely the Conservatives would easily win a majority; but lets make this new NDL party strong enough to present a challenge to see what that'd look like.

TR
3 - NDL

MB
7 - Cons
9 - NDL

SK
6 - Cons
8 - NDL

AB
43 - Cons
8 - NDL

BC
21 - Cons
36 - NDL
1 - Grn

TOTAL
77 - Cons
64 - NDL
1 - Grn

As for the Senate, I see things being closer, with the NDL having the advantage in more provinces.

Total
27 - NDL
23 - Cons
4 - Grn

For a combined total of
100 - Cons
91 - NDL
5 - Grn


The new nation would be decidedly Conservative; at least for the time being. Over time, the new NDL would likely move closer to where voters are, while the Conservatives would develop "old government rot"

So, what about the rest of Canada? Find out in the final post, part 4.

Independence - Part 2

So what of the new nations?

I've worked out some time ago how federal revenue and federal expenditure break down by province.

I've updated it to be accurate for the present. It presumes that, right now, we have $282 billion, federally, in revenue, and $282 billion, federally, in spending.

The contributing provinces are...

Alberta.
$1.63 (sends this much for every dollar it gets back)
$39.22 [billion] (revenue to the federal government)
$24.10 (spending from the federal government in alberta)


Ontario
$1.19
$118.15
$99.05


British Columbia
$1.03
$32.65
$31.66


Saskatchewan
$1.00
$9.35
$9.34


Quebec
$0.81 (sorry folks, not as low as many think!)
$56.68
$69.75


Manitoba
$0.67
$9.09
$13.48


Newfoundland
$0.61
$3.47
$5.72


New Brunswick
$0.51
$4.66
$9.19


Nova Scotia
$0.50
$6.22
$12.46 (so high, in part, due to military expenditure, navy in particular)


Prince Edward Island
$0.47 (ouch, less than half!)
$0.96
$2.04


Northwest Territories
$0.46
$0.84
$1.84


Yukon
$0.34
$0.48
$1.43


Nunavut
$0.12
$0.24
$1.94

So, what of our nations? How do they balance?

Western Canada
$1.10
$91.87
$83.79

Canada
$0.96
$190.14
$198.21

Canada's deficit would be small enough that it can be eliminated by fiscal restraint and growth. Western Canada, however, would have a very nice and healthy surplus. So much so that they could eliminate the entire GST and only end up with a deficit of 2 billion, something that growth could easily handle, especially if an entire tax were eliminated like that. This is, very likely, what they would do.

How about people?

Western Canada
BC - 41.3% - 4,582,000
AB - 36.3% - 4,025,100
MB - 11.4% - 1,265,000
SK - 10.0% - 1,108,300
NT - 00.4% - 43,500
YK - 00.3% - 36,700
NU - 00.3% - 35,600
TOTAL POP - 11,096,200

Canada
ON - 56.3% - 13,538,000
QC - 33.9% - 8,155,300
NS - 3.9% - 940,800
NB - 3.1% - 756,100
NL - 2.2% - 526,700
PE - 0.6% - 145,200
TOTAL POP - 24,062,100

So this gives us an idea of what these nations would look like, but how would they function? Find out in part 3, which will be posted very shortly.

Independence

Earlier today, in a post over at Blunt Objects, I compared tax rates by the provinces.

A trend struck me. The Territories were all low on the list. The Territories each receive huge amounts of money from the Federal Government.

Nunavut, for example, raised $120M from it's own sources; IE territorial taxes. It received $1.27B from the Federal Government, 10 times as much. 90% of the Nunavut budget is funded by the Federal government - this, frankly, is one of the key reasons Nunavut remains a Territory. Compare, however, to the NWT, which managed to raise $337M from it's own sources, but still needed $1.17B from the Federal government. 1.07B alone from the "Grant" that each Territory gets. This grant accounted for 70.21% of revenue in 2012-2013. The Yukon is best off, receiving only $979M from the feds, but raising only $225M from it's own sources, for a total of 81% federal funds.

Compare this to PEI, the province which gets the highest share of it's revenue from the Federal government; where that total share is only 39% of the revenue in the budget. Alberta, for comparison, gets 13%

But Alberta is why I'm writing this post. Alberta may only get $5B from the federal government, but they get $7.25B from Royalties. In fact, of the 4 provinces with the lowest taxes, 100% of them have royalties that bring in 7% or more of total government revenue. Of the 3 provinces with the lowest taxes, 100% of them have royalties that bring in 18% or more of total revenue. In fact, if Alberta did not have any Royalties at all, they would need a Sales Tax of 9% to make up the shortfall. To calculate that was easy. I simply figured out how much money Ontario is able to raise, on it's 8% sales tax, on it's 13 million citizens, then applied it to Alberta's 4 million citizens. I then had to expand it from the $6.1B result to meet the $7.25B need. This is not perfect; Alberta may be able to rise more, or less per person per tax point; but it's a great way to estimate.

Anyway, all of this is just an intro to the why to the numbers I plan to present a bit later.

Canada has 4 provinces with resource based economies. Alberta, Newfoundland, BC, and Saskatchewan. Policies that work well for resource based economies tend to not work well with more traditional economies. This is known as Dutch Disease.

Consider as well that Newfoundland is by far the smallest of these provinces. Also consider that Manitoba, while not one of these provinces, is geographically closer to the other 3.

Western Canada therefore has a population of around 11 million, 10 million of which live in resource-based provinces. "Eastern" Canada, by comparison, has 23.5 million, .5 million of which live in resource-based provinces.

Add to this the fact that Quebec is, well, Quebec, and Alberta is Alberta.

Economically and politically, creating two countries where one exists today makes sense, but that border should not be at the ottawa river, it should be just east of Winnipeg.


Thus in my next post I will be examining what happens if you split Canada in half, creating a 6-province "Canada", and a 4 province and 3 territory "Western Canada"